内镜切除胃间质瘤难度预测模型的建立和验证
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王显飞,男,博士,教授。 四川省生物信息学 会消化微创分会副主任委员,四川省抗癌协会肿瘤内镜专委会常 委。 主要研究方向:消化道早癌的内镜下诊治及分子机制。

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国家自然科学基金面上项目(编号:81972315)


Establishment and validation of a predictive model for the difficulty of endoscopic resection of gastric stromal tumors
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    目的 分析胃间质瘤(gastric gastrointestinal stromal tumors,gGISTs)患者内镜切除(endoscopic resection,ER)治疗 难度危险因素,建立内镜切除难度预测模型并进行验证。 方法 回顾性分析 2013 年 1 月至 2023 年 12 月我院收治的 ER 切除 gGISTs 患者 318 例,以 7 ∶ 3 的比例将患者分为训练组(n = 222)和验证组(n = 96)。 以手术难度划分结局分为困难组和非困难 组,分析比较两组患者的临床资料。 在训练组中进行 Lasso 回归和多因素 Logistic 回归筛选手术难度的独立危险因素并构建 列线图,并进行验证。 结果 经 Lasso 回归和多因素 Logistic 回归筛选后结果显示:肿瘤生长模式、肿瘤直径、手术者经验、中 性粒细胞与淋巴细胞比值、血小板与淋巴细胞比值为 ER 切除困难的独立影响因素( P<0. 05)。 多因素预测列线图模型在训 练组和验证组中的 AUC 分别为 0. 933(95% CI:0. 901 ~ 0. 965)和 0. 861(95% CI:0. 775 ~ 0. 947);校准曲线均显示预测值与实 测值拟合性良好,临床决策曲线表明在 0. 1 ~ 0. 9 阈值范围内有净收益率。 结论 肿瘤生长模式、肿瘤直径、手术者经验、 NLR、PLR 等因素与内镜切除 gGISTs 难度有关。 构建列线图模型在预测 ER 切除 gGISTs 难度的区分度和校准度较高,对手术 操作和术后管理有一定帮助。

    Abstract:

    Objective To analyze the risk factors of the difficulty of endoscopic resection (ER) in patients with gastric gastrointestinal stromal tumors (gGISTs), and to establish and verify a predictive model of the difficulty of RE. Methods A total of 318 patients with ER-gGISTs in our hospital from January 2013 to December 2023 were retrospectively analyzed. The patients were divided into a training group (n = 222) and a validation group (n = 96) in a ratio of 7 ∶ 3. The patients were further divided into a difficult group and a non-difficult group according to surgical difficulty. Clinical data were analyzed and compared between the two groups. Lasso regression and multivariate logistic regression were performed in the training group to screen independent risk factors for surgical difficulty and construct a nomogram. The nomogram was then validated. Results After Lasso regression and multivariate logistic regression screening, the results showed that tumor growth pattern, tumor diameter, surgical experience, neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio (NLR), and platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio (PLR) were independent factors influencing the difficulty of ER of gGISTs (P<0. 05). Based on the above influencing factors, a multi-factor predictive nomogram model of the difficulty of ER was constructed. The AUCs of the predictive nomogram model were 0. 933 (95% CI:0. 901 ~ 0. 965) and 0. 861 (95% CI: 0. 775 ~ 0. 947) in the training group and the validation group, respectively. The calibration curves showed a good fit between the predicted and measured values. The clinical decision curve indicated a net return rate within the threshold range of 0. 1 ~ 0. 9. Conclusions Tumor growth pattern, tumor diameter, operator experience, NLR and PLR are correlated with the difficulty of ER of gGISTs. The constructed nomogram model has a high discrimination and calibration in predicting the difficulty of the ER of gGISTs. It is helpful for surgical operation and postoperative management.

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戴俊臣,郭海洋 ,梁诗琦,王显飞.内镜切除胃间质瘤难度预测模型的建立和验证[J].实用医院临床杂志,2025,22(5):25-32

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  • 收稿日期:2025-07-02
  • 最后修改日期:2025-07-26
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  • 在线发布日期: 2025-09-29
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